December 6, 2022

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ARCHIVES » HAS THE US ALREADY SPIRALED INTO RECESSION?

HAS THE US ALREADY SPIRALED INTO RECESSION?

Real-time Federal Reserve economic growth tracker suggests country is now in a slump amid soaring inflation and spiking interest rates

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP tracker recorded a 2.1 percent drop in the nation’s GDP on Thursday, marking another quarter of declines 
  • It suggests the US is in a recession, which is identified when GDP falls over two successive quarters in a period of economic decline across the board
  •  It comes after Wall Street reported major losses at the end of the second quarter, with the S&P 500 reporting a 21 percent loss since the start of the year
  • Economists say soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve’s work to rein it in by raising interest rates are fueling the shocks to the market 
  • Analysts from major banks predict a recession to hit in 2023 

By RONNY REYES FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Federal Reserve tracker on the nation’s economic growth has pointed to an increased chance that the the U.S. has already entered a recession. 

While many economist believed a recession would hit next year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Gross Domestic Product (GPD) tracker recorded a 2.1 percent drop following an abysmal end to the second fiscal quarter on Thursday. 

Coupled with a fall of 1.6 percent in the first quarter, the drops fit within the definition of a recession, a period of economic decline across the board identified by a fall in GPD over two successive quarters. 

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‘GDPNow has a strong track record, and the closer we get to July 28th’s release [of GDP estimates] the more accurate it becomes,’ Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, told CNBC.

It comes after Wall Street reported major losses at the end of the second quarter on Thursday, with the S&P 500 reporting a nearly 21 percent loss since the start of the year before seeing a small rebound on Friday. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Gross Domestic Product (GPD) tracker recorded a 2.1 percent drop in the nation's GDP on Thursday, marking another quarter of declines

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Gross Domestic Product (GPD) tracker recorded a 2.1 percent drop in the nation’s GDP on Thursday, marking another quarter of declines

It comes as the S&P 500 recorded its worst six-month performance since 1970. The stock index was down nearly 21 percent as of Friday afternoon

It comes as the S&P 500 recorded its worst six-month performance since 1970. The stock index was down nearly 21 percent as of Friday afternoon

The Dow Jones
The Nasdaq Composite

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (left) and the Nasdaq Composite (right) also recorded abysmal results over the first two quarters of the year

The Atlanta tracker saw GDP levels fluctuating, but remaining steady throughout April before taking a tumble in June, reaching 0 percent growth points by June 18. 

By June 27, the GDP levels hit the negative territory, reaching the 2.1 percent fall by Thursday. 

That same day, the S&P 500 fell took a tumble, falling  0.88 percent by closing time.

The benchmark index has been on a dismal streak that dragged it into a bear market earlier this month and is now down nearly 21 percent for the year. Thursday’s closing was its worst quarter since the beginning of 2020, and worst half year since 1970.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also fallen by 15.36 percent since the start of the year, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 23.87 percent. 

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Following the poor showings, the stocks enjoyed a small rebound on Friday, with the S&P up 23 points, or 0.62 percent ahead of closing. 

The Dow Jones was up 0.68 percent, or 209 points, and the Nasdaq rose by 1.05 percent. 

Rising inflation has been behind much of the slump for the broader market this year as businesses raise prices on everything from food to clothing and consumers are squeezed tighter. 

Inflation remains stubbornly hot at 8.6 percent and central banks have been aggressively raising interest rates to try and slow economic growth in order to rein it in.

The three major stock indexes saw a rebound on Friday following Thursday's drops

The three major stock indexes saw a rebound on Friday following Thursday’s drops

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) said the Fed would likely raise interest rates up by 0.75 percent in July

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) said the Fed would likely raise interest rates up by 0.75 percent in July

Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 last week to stem a surge in inflation

Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 last week to stem a surge in inflation

Earlier this month the Fed hiked interest rates 0.75 percent, the biggest rate hike since 1994, to a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. The Fed is expected to raise rates by the same amount in July. 

While the move is likely to bring down inflation, it is also expected to bring another shock to the market as analysts from Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs all predict the hikes could also lead into a recession. 

‘The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth – somewhat more than we think is necessary,’ Goldman’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said last week. 

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, however, pointed to a strong labor market — unemployment is near a half century low at 3.6% — and noted that most households and businesses had healthy savings.

‘Overall,’ he said, ‘the U.S. economy is well-positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy.’

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